Did You Know the Age That You Were Married Affects Divorce Rates British Columbia

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• Published: 17 April 2015

The touch on of children on divorce adventure

The Journal of Chinese Folklore volume 2, Commodity number:one (2015) Cite this commodity

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Abstract

Based on the information of the first wave of the Chinese Family Panel Study in 2010, this paper studies the relationship of divorce risk and four variables related to children in Prc: premarital births and number, historic period, and gender of children. We notice that all iv variables have meaning effects on divorce adventure. Specifically, (1) couples who have premarital children are more likely to divorce; (2) the college the number of children, the more than stable the marriage, just the marginal effect declines with the increase of the number of children; (3) younger children reduce the hazard of divorce more older ones; and (four) couples who have sons are less likely to divorce. All these findings are consistent with studies conducted in other countries and suggest that children play an important office in stabilizing marriage and resolving conflicts in spousal relationship. We too find that the positive effect of children on marital stability and the effect of children'south gender are stronger in rural areas, which is due to the differences in modernization and cultural values between rural and urban areas. These findings imply that changes in marriage values and the reject of the fertility charge per unit are ii important causes of the recent increment of the divorce rate in Prc.

Groundwork

Research question

Every bit a "media of binding couples biologically and psychologically" (Fei 1999), the presence of children is generally considered to be an of import guarantee of stability in a marital human relationship (Waite and Lillard 1991; Heaton 1990; Thornton 1977). Children are not but the most important investment in a marriage (Becker 1973; Becker et al. 1977) but can also heighten the emotion and interdependence between husband and wife (Durkheim 2000; Waite and Lillard 1991). Therefore, couples with children take a lower divorce hazard.

However, empirical studies take found that the relationship between children and marital stability is very complex. Starting time, having children is not always a beneficial factor for the stability of a matrimony (Waite and Lillard 1991). 2nd, in the dynamic procedure of children growing upwards, children's effect on the stability of union changes (Heaton 1990). Finally, the impact of children differs by gender. Studies have found that having sons is more than protective of the stability of spousal relationship (Morgan et al. 1988).

Compared with rich theoretical and empirical inquiry, at that place has not yet been a systematic report that investigates the relationship between children and divorce risk in the unique context of China. Based on the first moving ridge of the Chinese Family Console Study (CFPS) in 2010, this written report explores this issue for the first time. In People's republic of china, the subsequent impact of the 1-child policy on family life is gradually emerging. Therefore, exploring the factors influencing family unit stability from the perspective of children is not only of theoretical significance but likewise of important practical significance.

Beginning, considering of unique cultural traditions, the divorce rate in Cathay was very low during its long history (Ye and Lin 1998; Zeng 1995). However, since the 1980s, Red china'southward crude divorce charge per unit has maintained an increasing tendency. As is shown in Figure 1, in 1979, the number of divorces was 319,000, and the rough divorce rate was just 0.three per thousand; in 2009, however, these two statistics rose to 2.468 meg and 1.85 per thousand, respectively. The average annual growth rate was 7.1% and half dozen.3%. Compared with the gradual rising prior to 2000, both the number of divorces and the crude divorce charge per unit accelerated after 2000.

Figure 1

Growth curve of number of divorces and crude divorce rate since 1978. Data source: Institute of Population and Labor Economics (2010).

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2d, since the implementation of the family planning policy in the 1970s, China'due south birth charge per unit has decreased steadily. During the past thirty years, the full fertility rate (TFR) quickly dropped from a high level of close to six in 1970 to below the replacement level (2.ane) at the start of the 1990s^a. Every bit is shown in Figure two, though the TFR values based on different data sources are non uniform, the failing trend is obvious.

Figure 2

Total fertility rate based on unlike data sources.

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Thus, there is a rapid turn down of the total fertility rate on the one hand and a substantial increment in the crude divorce rate on the other. Although this report does not focus exclusively on the association between the ii, the simultaneous alter in the divorce and fertility rates at the macro-social level makes the study of the stability of marriage from the perspective of children more meaningful.

Moreover, the uniqueness of Chinese society lies in the dual-division organization betwixt urban and rural areas. Urban and rural areas not only differ significantly at the level of modernization and cultural values but as well display a huge divergence in divorce rates (Wu 1999; Zeng 1995) and fertility rates (Guo 2004). This report explores whether these disparities affect the association between children and divorce risk differently in urban and rural areas.

Hypotheses

The theoretical framework of the association betwixt children and marital stability is shown in Effigy iii (Thornton 1977). Certain theories posit that the presence of children has a direct effect on marital stability (Figure 3,a). From the perspective of economists, children are a marital-specific majuscule, which, on the one manus, can raise the attractiveness of the current matrimony and, on the other hand, tin increase the cost of divorce. Thus, couples with children are less likely to divorce (Becker 1973; Becker et al. 1977). Unlike other forms of marital capital, the couple naturally jointly possesses their children, and the more children a couple have, the more common property they possess (Becker 1973). Divorced women with children find it more than difficult to remarry relative to those who do not accept children, thus having children increases the toll of divorce for women (Teachman and Heckert 1985).

Figure iii

Theoretical framework of the clan between children and matrimony stability.

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In contrast to economic theories, sociological theories focus more on children's effects on the division of labor within the family. The nascency of a child creates "a common work and career" for the couple (Fei 1999). In the process of raising children together, interdependence is established between the couple through the division of labor. This "organic solidarity" is beneficial for maintaining a stable marital relationship (Durkheim 2000; Waite and Lillard 1991; Morgan et al. 1988).

Raising children requires enormous time, money, and emotion from both sides of a couple (Heaton 1990). Once divorced, the party (unremarkably the father) that loses child custody is usually alienated from their children, destroys their relationship with their children, and then suffers severe mental anguish (Furstenberg et al. 1983). For the party (normally the female parent) that obtains custody, the divorce can bring serious difficulties in life considering the entire burden falls on one person's shoulders (Waite and Lillard 1991). Therefore, in order to avoid its agin effects, some couples may carelessness the intention to divorce (Thornton 1977). Moreover, later having children, pressure from social norms and cultural traditions are stronger in discouraging divorce (Waite and Lillard 1991). Studies have plant that about couples believe that divorce is harmful for children. For the sake of their children's healthy growth, some emotionally damaged couples may choose to continue the marriage (Thornton 1977; McLanahan and Bumpass 1988).

In add-on to the direct impacts mentioned above, children may as well touch the stability of marriage indirectly (Effigy 3,c) through marital satisfaction (Effigy 3,b). Some studies suggest that having children itself is a source of happiness (Heaton 1990). Watching children growing day past twenty-four hour period, the couple gains a sense of accomplishment and happiness (Hoffman and Manis 1978). Equally a third party, children become a couple'southward "media for bonding psychologically" (Fei 1999), and thus contribute to adjusting the couple's relationship and resolving disagreements (Thornton 1977).

Other studies suggest that children accept a negative affect on marital satisfaction (Belsky et al. 1983). Parenting is non an easy matter. After the child is born, the couple must undergo a significant adjustment to adapt to their new function as parents; the higher the number of children, the more hard the adaptation. Sometimes, the children themselves can become the root causes of conflicts between the couple (Rollins and Galligan 1978; Worthington and Buston 1986). For case, after having children, a fundamental change occurs in a couple'south assignment of housework, work, and leisure time. The effect is less and less time for emotional communication betwixt the married man and wife. Empirical studies have institute that couples with children have lower marital satisfaction (Belsky et al. 1983; Hoffman and Manis 1978). This low level of satisfaction has been interpreted differently. Some people believe that the presence of children may negatively affect marital satisfaction considering children are similar a kind of glue that can stick the dissatisfactions together (Glenn and Mclanahan 1982).

Finally, marital satisfaction may also bear on the decision to acquit children (Figure 3,d). People in marriages with conflicts have a lower desire. Unhappy marriages may lead to lower frequency of sexual intercourse and may issue in the couple using more effective ways of contraception and even ballgame to avoid unwanted pregnancies (Udry 1971). Although some studies propose that divorce take a chance and the number of children have a negative human relationship, a different estimation thus exists. When couples are facing potential divorce, they are less likely to have children (Thornton 1977).

Theoretically, children tin can have both a positive bear upon on the stability of marriage (positive direct result a and positive indirect effect of b ×c) and a negative impact (negative indirect outcome of b ×c). The human relationship between children and marital stability may as well be spurious, caused by common factors of marital satisfaction (Effigy 3; marital satisfaction affects both the presence of children d and the stability of the union). Such theoretical complication results in the complication of empirical findings.

Nether different weather condition, children may have different effects on the stability of marriage. First, the time of birth is of import. Some studies plant that premarital nascence is non favorable to the stability of a matrimony, while the nascency of children after a marriage has a positive upshot (Waite and Lillard 1991). Premarital birth can force the young couple to take on the responsibleness of parenthood before they take accumulated the necessary material wealth and emotional foundation. Before they can enjoy their marriage, couples with premarital birth must face a heavy family burden both financially and emotionally (Waite and Lillard 1991). Premarital birth makes a difficult life more likely, and overwhelming situations can increase the likelihood of divorce (Freedman and Thornton 1979). Moreover, in China, premarital birth contradicts the traditional cultural values, so these children are more vulnerable to criticism and questioning from others. At the same time, premarital birth also reflects the fact that the couple may take an open mental attitude toward marriage, and couples with open attitudes are usually more vulnerable to divorce (Xie 2006). Based on this, the first hypothesis examines whether the negative relationship betwixt premarital birth and divorce risk also applies in China.

Hypothesis i: Couples with premarital birth have a college divorce run a risk.

Second, the number of children is important. Most studies propose that the number of children has a linear relation with divorce risk in that the greater the number of children, the lower the gamble of divorce (White 1990; Waite and Lillard 1991; Hoem and Hoem 1992; Goode 1993; Tzeng and Mare 1995; Weiss and Willis 1997; Jalovaara 2001; Coppola and Di Cesare 2008). However, some researchers have found that the number of children and divorce risk has a U-shaped nonlinear human relationship and that either besides many or too few children are non favorable to the stability of a marriage (Thornton 1977). Intuitively, an increase in the number of children increases a couple'due south marriage capital letter and improves and promotes the couple'southward feelings and interdependence, but these gains may have a diminishing marginal effect. As the number of children increases, the burden of raising children becomes increasingly heavy and the negative impact from children as well increases. Therefore, the nonlinear relationship may be more realistic.

The second hypothesis thus tests whether a nonlinear human relationship exists between the number of children and divorce risk.

Hypothesis 2: The higher the number of children, the lower the risk of divorce; nevertheless, in one case the number increases more than the marginal quantity, it increases the risk of divorce.

Tertiary, children'southward historic period has an impact on the risk of divorce (Heaton 1990). Studies take plant that younger children can lower the divorce run a risk. As age increases, children's role in protecting a spousal relationship becomes weaker (Heaton 1990; Bracher et al. 1993; Andersson 1997). Some studies have even institute that children over the age of 13 may adversely affect the stability of a matrimony (Waite and Lillard 1991). Possible interpretations are that taking care of young children requires a swell deal of time and endeavour (Cherlin 1977). When children are younger, the husband and wife can maximize their do good through the partitioning of labor. Once divorced, the unabridged burden falls on the shoulders of one person, and this is not what the couple wants (Waite and Lillard 1991). As children grow upward, the school bears a part of the children'due south custody; on the other hand, when children become more independent emotionally and financially, the couple will receive less in return through the sectionalisation of labor (Waite and Lillard 1991). Parents may believe that divorce poses greater impairment to immature children, and then in order to allow children to grow up in a good for you way, parents are more reluctant to become divorced when children are young (Heaton 1990). Based on this, the third hypothesis of this study is to verify whether the protective result of children on wedlock is stronger when children are younger.

Hypothesis 3: Younger children have a stronger protective effect on marriage.

Finally, studies have found that boys are more favorable to the stability of wedlock (Morgan et al. 1988). Fathers play a more important part in raising sons, and thus are more involved in family issues. In this instance, the wife feels more satisfied with the hubby, and thus, the stability of the marriage is higher (Morgan et al. 1988). Like findings also announced in the study of divorce tendency. Katzev et al. (1994) find that compared to mothers with sons, mothers who take but daughters call up that their marriages are more than likely to end in divorce. Nonetheless, some researchers accept found that children's gender does non significantly affect divorce run a risk (Andersson and Woldemicael 2001; Diekmann and Schmidheiny 2004).

In society to test the effect of children's gender, we propose a 4th hypothesis:

Hypothesis 4: Couples with sons have a lower divorce risk.

Compared to Western society, Chinese society has unique characteristics. To some extent, divorce was prohibited since aboriginal times in People's republic of china because of its potential harm to matrimony stability and violation of the dominant Confucian laws. In traditional Chinese civilisation, the intent of wedlock was non the honey and happiness of the husband and wife simply to produce children, especially sons, to keep the family proper noun alive (Zeng 1995). Therefore, childbearing and childrearing are inherent purposes of Chinese marriage. This is essentially dissimilar from Western guild, where marriage is a private, matter and getting a divorce is perceived as an human activity of liberty (Zeng 1995). If children stabilize marriages and parents need to make sacrifices in club to heighten children, this kind of stabilizing effect and sacrifice should be more evident in Chinese lodge.

Nonetheless, with the opening of China, Western values are increasingly exerting their bear on on Chinese people'southward attitudes and concepts, and the traditional Chinese concept of marriage may be changing (Ye and Lin 1998). In urban areas, this change may be more than significant, while in relatively isolated rural areas, the traditional concept of matrimony may still play a role. Therefore, the protective effect of children on marriage should exist stronger in rural areas. In view of this, nosotros propose a fifth hypothesis:

Hypothesis 5: The protective event of children on marriage is stronger in rural areas than in urban areas.

Moreover, the uniqueness of Chinese lodge is likewise reflected in the potent son preference. For cultural purposes such as conveying on the family unit line and practical purposes such every bit raising children for future erstwhile-historic period care, Chinese couples adopt boys. This gender preference may result in couples raising children in dissimilar ways. Given the land's strict limitation on the number of births, if the wife does non give nascency to a male child, information technology may cause primal conflicts for couples. Once over again, this gender preference is stronger in rural areas.

This study thus argues that the touch of children's gender should be more axiomatic in rural areas in China. Our sixth hypothesis states

Hypothesis 6: The impact of children'due south gender on divorce hazard is stronger in rural areas than in urban areas.

Methods

The data used in this study was drawn from the outset wave of the CFPS in 2010. CFPS is a large-scale comprehensive social survey conducted by the Institute of Social Science Survey at Peking University. This survey employs an implicit stratified multistage PPS sampling pattern and covers 25 provinces in communist china (excluding Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Tibet, Hainan, Ningxia, and Qinghai), representing about 95% of the Chinese population.

In the first wave of CFPS, each family was asked to complete a family-member questionnaire regarding the human relationship of family members living together, equally well as basic demographic and socioeconomic information regarding themselves, their parents, their spouses, and their children. Each of the surveyed households then answered a household questionnaire to gather further information on household income, expenditures, housing, living conditions, and other family issues. Finally, each family unit member in the household answered a personal questionnaire. At that place were ii versions of this questionnaire, the child'southward version and the adult's version, based on the respondent's historic period. The personal questionnaire included questions on educational activity, work, marriage, health, time use, and and so on.

In the start wave of data drove in 2010, CFPS received a total of 14,960 valid family-member questionnaires, 14,798 household questionnaires, 33,600 adult questionnaires, and viii,990 child questionnaires. This written report is mainly based on the adult sample, but single respondents were removed from the assay. The unit of analysis is the pair in the "first wedlock." If both spouses in their first marriage answered the adult questionnaire, they were counted as one couple. After deleting unreasonable values^b and removing missing values, 16,466 pairs of first marriages entered into the analysis.

CFPS asked well-nigh each couple'south marital history, including the date of their first marriage, respondent's nascency appointment and that of their first spouse, whether their get-go spousal relationship ended in divorce and the date of divorce, and whether their first spouse died and the engagement of death. In improver, CFPS also asked nigh the reproductive history of each couple, including the nativity engagement of each kid and child's gender. Based on this information, nosotros tin can analyze in detail how timing of births and number, age, and gender of children impact the divorce rate during the family life cycle.

Except for premarital nascency, all the independent variables associated with children, namely number of children, children'south age structure, and gender structure, alter throughout the duration of the marriage. These three variables are fourth dimension-varying variables. Fourth dimension-varying variables tin capture the changes that occur over time; due to the introduction of time, the value of contained variables always precedes that of the dependent variables, and causation is clearer. All the same, the assay is still not completely unaffected by the possibility of reverse causation. Couples may feel divorce is a time to come gamble and intentionally suppress current fertility (Effigy 3,d).

In terms of operationalization, the existence of premarital nascency is a dichotomous variable. If the birth of the respondents' first child occurred earlier than the date of spousal relationship, the value is assigned 1, otherwise 0.

The number of children refers to the absolute number of children that couples have at a specific fourth dimension indicate, and is thus a time-varying variable.

4 variables report children's historic period construction, namely the number of children aged 0, the number anile 1 to 5 years, the number aged half dozen to 12 years, and the number of children aged 13 and over. The total of the four variables is the total number of children couples have at a particular point of fourth dimension. This categorization is based on the findings of Waite and Lillard (1991), who find that couples experience a "honeymoon" period afterwards each new nativity and that the marriage is most stable during these times. Preschoolers (children under 6 years old) are strongly dependent on their parents, so couples' divorce risk is relatively depression; however, children over the age of 13 adversely affect the stability of marriage. To test the applicability of these findings in China, this written report divided children into the iv groups shown above.

The variable reflecting the gender construction of kid is a dichotomous variable. If the couple gave birth to boy(southward) before a particular betoken of time, the value is ane, otherwise 0.

In add-on to these central independent variables, elapsing of union, date of marriage, provinces, urban or rural areas, wife's age at outset marriage, and education were also controlled in the analysis. Since these variables are relevant to both independent and dependent variables, they must be controlled in the model.

Studies take plant that divorce adventure shows an inverted U-shaped curve in the duration of the marriage (Vignoli and Ferro 2009; Lyngstad 2004); number of children, gender, and age structure also changes with the duration of the marriage. Therefore, elapsing of marriage has to be controlled. Applying the Cox proportional hazards model to this study intrinsically controls for the elapsing of marriage and so avoids this problem.

Second, existing research also found that influenced by national policy, People's republic of china'due south divorce rate differed significantly in different historical periods (Zeng 1995). In the early on years, China experienced a superlative in the divorce charge per unit; after, affected past the Cultural Revolution in the late 1960s and throughout the 1970s, China's divorce rate dropped to a very low level (Ye and Lin 1998). During the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy and the promulgation of the new Marriage Law in the 1980s, Cathay's divorce rate began to rising continuously (see Effigy ane).

Due to dissimilar fertility policies, Prc's birth rate also differs significantly in different historical periods. In social club to avoid interference, this study divides the entire fourth dimension span into five periods: the outset period is prior to 1966 when the Cultural Revolution began; the second period spans from the beginning of the Cultural Revolution in 1966 to the promulgation of the new Marriage Police force in 1980; the 3rd period is the early on years of reform and opening upwards from 1981 to 1991; the 4th period is from 1992 to 1999 when the economic reform in China accelerated; and the 5th menstruum begins in 2000 when China entered the new century. Figure 1 shows that this menstruum has witnessed a significantly rapid ascension in the divorce charge per unit. Historical period is also a time-varying variable because over the duration of a wedlock, the couple may experience a number of historical periods.

Once again, Red china'southward divorce rates likewise showed significant regional differences and urban-rural differences (Zeng 1995). Due to differences in the level of social development, cultural traditions, and fertility policies among dissimilar provinces and between urban and rural areas, fertility rates also have significant regional differences. In social club to eliminate confounders, provinces and urban/rural are as well controlled in the model. Specifically, CFPS investigated a total of 25 provinces; in the analysis, they are treated as fixed furnishings. Rural-urban segmentation is based on whether respondents accept a village committee or residential committee. This is not only an important command variable, but in its interaction with children, it is also an important factor studied by this work.

Because of migration and mobility, place of residence may change over time; thus, the provinces and urban/rural areas are besides time-varying variables. However, the data did non collect the migration history of respondents, so we tin can only control for the provinces and the urban/rural areas in which respondents currently reside. In addition to residential areas, household registration status can also be used to determine urban/rural areas. This study used the residential area to distinguish rural from urban for two principal reasons. Commencement, migrants from rural to urban areas have a certain particularity, and because of their urban experiences, their concept of matrimony and childbearing may change. Thus, merging them with those left behind in rural areas may not be appropriate. Second, defining urban/rural co-ordinate to household registration tin can bring ambiguities in the operationalization because the husband and wife may have dissimilar household registration status. For couples living in two separate places, especially people who have been divorced, we only have the information of the individual answering the questionnaire, which makes it difficult to operationalize. In club to test sensitivity, we also repeated the analysis by using household registration status to distinguish rural from urban and found that the results are consistent.

Finally, some studies have plant that couples' level of education and age at kickoff wedlock likewise affect divorce gamble. Years of education betoken the openness of the concept of marriage; thus, the college the level of education the more likely they are to divorce. Studies on age at first marriage testify that marrying as well young is not beneficial to the stability of a marriage (Waite and Lillard 1991; Heaton 1990). Empirically, the married man's historic period at outset union and years of education accept a strong correlation with the wife's, merely the affect of years of teaching and age of the wife on nascency is more straight, and therefore, we control for the wife'due south historic period at starting time marriage and years of education in this study.

Tabular array one describes the basic descriptive statistics of all 16,466 couples at the first of the union. The sample consists of 12.v% of couples married prior to 1966, 23.eight% married during 1966 to 1980, 29.0% married during 1981 to 1991, 16.seven% married during 1992 to 1999, and xviii.one% married after 2000^c. Ii-thirds of the sampled couples lived in rural areas, and 1-third lived in urban areas. The average age of wives at first marriage was 22.0 years old, and the boilerplate duration of education was 5.4 years. The pct of sampled couples who had children earlier getting married was four.3.

Tabular array one Descriptive statistics on when couples married

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Table 2 describes the change in number of children, age, and gender structure in the duration of the marriage. As seen, over the duration of marriage, the number of children increases, the number of older children increases, and the number of young children decreases. With the increase in the number of children, the proportion of having boys also increases.

Table 2 Changes in number of children, children's age, and gender in the duration of marriage

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Note that in Table 2, the size of the sample dwindles with the duration of marriage for two reasons. First, some divorced or widowed couples ended their get-go union before 2010. These couples exercise non announced in subsequent years after divorce or losing a spouse. 2d, some married couples only had a very short marriage history when they were surveyed. For example, couples that married in 2006 cannot be part of the sample of marriages of 10 or twenty years when they were surveyed in 2010.

This problem of data censoring as well appears in Table 3. Table 3 describes the marital status of all 16,466 couples in their commencement marriage when surveyed in 2010. As tin be seen, most couples are still in their marriages, but this does not indicate that they will non divorce in the future. For this information-censoring problem, survival assay is currently the best statistical model.

Table 3 Distribution of marital status in 2010

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The statistical model used in this report is the Cox proportional hazards model. This model has advantages over other survival models (Allison 1995). Start, it is a semiparametric model, which means it does not require presetting the function course of the divorce hazard. Second, though its assumptions are weaker than parametric models, model estimates still take practiced statistical properties, and the efficiency of statistical tests does not suffer greatly. Third, with respect to parameter models, the Cox proportional hazards model can easily deal with fourth dimension-varying independent variables, such as the number, age, and gender of children. Therefore, this model is platonic for our research purposes.

The formula of the Cox proportional hazards model is as follows:

$$ \log {h}_i(t)=a(t)+\beta {x}_i+\upgamma {10}_i(t) $$

where h _j (t) refers to the divorce run a risk of couple i subsequently t years of marriage, and α(t) characterizes the variation of divorce risk in the duration of spousal relationship, that is, the baseline hazard part of divorce. Since α(t) is the same for all first marriages, the differences between log h _j (t) no longer contain α(t); this is why the Cox proportional hazards model does non crave assumptions regarding the function form of the divorce hazard function. The two terms on the correct side of the equation except α(t) portray the divorce risks among different kinds of couples. The term x _i represents a group of time-constant independent variables, such every bit wife'south years of education and age at first wedlock. β is the regression coefficient of x _i ; 10 _i (t) represents a set of fourth dimension-varying contained variables, such equally the number of children, children's age, and gender. The term γ is the regression coefficient of x _i (t).

To include fourth dimension-varying variables in the analysis, this study converts the data into person-year format. When the model is set, all first marriages are under risk of divorce from the beginning of the spousal relationship. Couples who were withal married in 2010 are constantly in the risk set. Divorced and widowed couples exit the risk set subsequently the occurrence of the effect. The variable that indicates the occurrence of divorce is assigned the value of ane for divorced couples only in the twelvemonth when the divorce occurred; the value assigned to married and widowed couples during the risk set is always 0.

Results

Bivariate descriptive analysis

Figure iv shows the Kaplan-Meier survival office for couples with and without premarital births, which shows that couples with premarital birth have a much higher divorce risk than those with no premarital births.

Effigy four

Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for couples with and without premarital births.

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Effigy 5 describes the Kaplan-Meier survival function of divorce by number of children. As is seen in the graph, the height of the iv survival curves is arranged in strict order of the number of children. The survival curve corresponding to childless couples lies in the everyman position, and the survival curve for couples with three or more children lies in the highest position. This shows that the greater the number of children, the smaller the possibility of divorce.

Figure 5

Kaplan-Meier survival estimates by number of children.

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Further investigation reveals that the gap between couples with no children and with one child is broad, the gap betwixt couples with ane child and two children is relatively narrower, and the gap betwixt couples with two and three or more children is the narrowest. Therefore, intuitively, the marginal upshot of the number of children on marital stability diminishes with the increase in the number.

Figure vi depicts the divorce hazard between those who have boys and those who do not amid couples who accept at least one child. As is seen, the survival curve for couples with boy(s) is significantly higher than those who do not have male child(s); that is, couples with sons have higher marital stability.

Figure 6

Kaplan-Meier survival estimates for couples with and without boy(southward).

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As can be seen in Figures iv, 5, half-dozen, survival curves are parallel and there are no intersects, indicating that the independent variables involved in the figures meet the proportional run a risk assumptions underlying the Cox proportional hazards model. In addition to these variables, we likewise tested the proportional hazard for each of the control variables ane by one, using the graphic method prior to applying the Cox model. This showed that all variables meet this assumption.

Have historical periods every bit an instance. Every bit is shown in Figure 7, the survival curves are roughly parallel to each other and accept no intersections. Consequent with the literature review, the divorce rate is the lowest in the period 1966 to 1980, which is associated with a particular political surround. Later this particular historical period, the divorce rate rises continuously with time, which is also consistent with the previous findings.

Figure vii

Kaplan-Meier survival estimates by historical periods.

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In this paper, we used the Cox proportional hazards model. To test the robustness of the results, we besides tried other modeling methods. Figure 7 shows that the survival function for each historical periods does not display any intersection; however, considering that the survival function in different periods may have different shapes, we also applied a stratified Cox model. We treated different historical periods as different layers and institute that this was entirely consequent with the results obtained by the Cox model. In addition, when i takes into account that the measurement for the time of divorce is in years, this may not satisfy the assumption of a continuous-time hazard model of the Cox model. Nosotros also tried a detached-time hazard model and found that the results from this model were consistent with the Cox model. Due to space limitations, we but written report the estimation results of the Cox model.

Results of model analysis

Tabular array four shows the results of the Cox proportional hazards model. In improver to controlling for the duration of marriage, all models controlled for historical periods, provinces, urban/rural areas, married woman'southward age at first wedlock, and wife'south years of completed educational activity. Considering of space limitations, the regression coefficients for each province are not reported in the table.

Table 4 Results of the Cox proportional hazards model

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According to the regression coefficients of the 4 historical periods, the divorce risk during 1966 to 1980 was lower than before 1966, and the divorce take chances during 1981 to 1991 was higher than earlier 1966. However, both the statistical tests are not meaning. In contrast, the divorce take chances of the two historical periods after 1992 is significantly higher, with the highest later 2000.

Divorce risk is higher for urban couples than rural couples. The younger the wife'south historic period at get-go marriage and the higher her level of education, the higher the divorce hazard. This is consistent with previous findings. In Models 5 and half dozen, the statistical tests for the coefficient of urban/rural areas are not significant later adding the interaction term. With interactions in the model, the theoretical meaning of the master effect of urban/rural areas differs from the previous iv models, so they cannot be directly compared.

Model 1 included whether couples had a premarital nascency and the number of children. Even after controlling for other variables, the divorce hazard for couples with premarital nativity is still college and statistically meaning. From Model 1 to Model 6, the regression coefficients and the results of statistical tests are very consistent, which fully demonstrates that premarital nativity is not favorable to the stability of wedlock. Therefore, Hypothesis 1 is supported past the model.

Model l besides shows that after decision-making for other variables, the divorce risk significantly decreases as the number of children increases. But different from Model i that assumes a linear relationship between number of children and divorce risk, Model ii assumed a U-shaped quadratic relationship. The statistical examination for the quadratic term of the number of children is very meaning, suggesting the existence of a nonlinear relationship betwixt the number of children and divorce take a chance.

Based on simple calculation, when the number of children is equal to 4.3, the quadratic curve drops down to the everyman point. Since the majority of the couples in the sample have fewer than five children, it can generally be assumed that the divorce adventure decreases as the number of children increases, but due to the presence of the quadratic term, the charge per unit of decline is non linear. The decline is largest when the number of children increases from 0 to i and is smaller when the number increases from ane to 2, and so on. Further analysis establish that if the number of children is included in the model as a chiselled variable, couples with iv children and couples with five or more than children have roughly the aforementioned divorce adventure (results are not presented in the tabular array). That is, when the number of children increases to four, further increase does not reduce the divorce risk. This finding fully demonstrates that the number of children has diminishing marginal effects on marriage stability, which confirms Hypothesis 2.

Model 3 divided children into 4 age groups. In the different age groups, an increase in the number of children has a protective outcome on marriage. The impact is the largest for children aged 0, then those aged 1 to 5, followed by those aged 6 to 12; children anile 13 years former and over have the minimum impact.

To test the effects of children's age, we imposed a linear constraint on the 4 age groups, that is, they were treated as having the aforementioned effect. Results of likelihood ratio chi-square showed that the fit of the model was significantly lowered (p < 0. 01) after the constraint. This demonstrates that the regression coefficients of the 4 variables are non equal, that is, children of different ages have unlike effects on divorce take chances. From the coefficients, nosotros tin conclude that the younger the children, the greater the protective consequence. Therefore, Hypothesis iii is supported equally well.

Model 4 added a variable indicating whether a couple has a male child on the ground of Model 3. As is shown in the table, after controlling for other variables, the divorce risk is significantly lower for couples with boys. Therefore, Hypothesis four is also supported.

In Model 5, we added the interaction terms of urban/rural areas with the number of children based on Model 4. The furnishings of the number of children aged 0 have no significant differences between urban and rural areas, but the effects for those anile i to five, those aged 3 to 12, and children anile thirteen and older are all significantly different. The regression coefficients of the three interaction terms are positive, which indicates that the protective effect on marriage of children in urban areas is weaker than in rural areas. Therefore, Hypothesis 5 is supported.

Finally, Model 6 incorporated the interaction term of urban/rural areas and the gender of children based on Model iv. The estimate of the interaction is significantly positive, which indicates that the result of boys is weaker in urban areas than in rural areas. Therefore, Hypothesis vi is also supported.

Discussion and conclusions

Existing studies show that premarital births and the number, age, and gender of children have significant impacts on couples' divorce risk, but no report has systematically examined the relationships between children and divorce risk in Communist china to date. Based on the first wave of the CFPS in 2010, this report explores this issue for the first time.

We establish that all the above variables have significant impacts on divorce risk in China. Specifically, couples with no premarital births take lower divorce risk, and the greater the number of children, the more stable is the wedlock. However, the protective effects of the number of children have diminishing marginal effects; the lower the child'southward age, the lower is the divorce adventure, and couples with boys have lower divorce risk. These findings are all consistent with the results of previous studies in Western societies, which demonstrates that, as a link between the couple, children are extremely of import for maintaining a stable marital relationship and resolving family conflicts.

In add-on, this written report found that the touch of children on divorce risk is significantly different betwixt urban and rural areas. The protective effect of children is stronger in rural areas than in urban areas, and the protective effect of boys is stronger in rural areas as well. These differences may reflect the huge gap in terms of the level of socioeconomic development and cultural traditions between urban and rural areas.

Due to special cultural traditions, China'southward divorce rates accept long been low. In traditional Chinese culture, the intent of marriage was not the love and happiness of the couple, but for childbearing and rearing, the whole family unit. Therefore, information technology is substantially unlike from that in Western gild (Zeng 1995). Still, since the introduction of the reform and the opening-up policy, China has undergone substantial changes in terms of economical growth and cultural values. With the rapid pace of socioeconomic and cultural changes, people's concept of marriage and the family has also changed dramatically and drastically (Zeng 1995).

This study institute that, compared with the relatively isolated rural areas, the effect of children on wedlock stability is significantly weaker than in the relatively more developed urban areas. To some degree, this confirms the impact of the change in the concept of union and public opinions on divorce. In addition, premarital nascence is not favorable to the stability of marriage, which as well confirms that an open attitude toward spousal relationship leads to higher divorce risks. All these findings show that change in the marriage concept is an important reason for the recent increase in Cathay'south divorce rate. Information technology is foreseeable that with the rapid pace of economical increment and cultural change, China'southward divorce rates will continue to ascent.

In addition to the changes in the concept of spousal relationship, the bear on of the failing fertility rate on the stability of wedlock should not be neglected. Due to the implementation of a strict family planning policy and overall socioeconomic development, China'southward fertility rates take continued to subtract since the 1970s (see Figure ii). The reject in the fertility rate lowered the rate of population growth, which made tremendous contributions to China's socioeconomic evolution. On the other mitt, for families, the decline in the fertility charge per unit means the decline of couples' joint resources or the decline of specific marriage capital. At the same time, it also ways that the chance of having a boy is reduced, and the duration of having a young child in the family is shortened, thereby profoundly increasing the instability of union and the family unit.

Although this report does not directly discuss the relationship between the fertility rate and divorce rate, the findings imply an association between the ii. Therefore, 1 can assume that the turn down in the fertility rate may exist an important crusade for the increase in the divorce rate.

Endnotes

^aThe population replacement level is the fertility rate required to maintain the population. It varies with the mortality rate. For the current mortality charge per unit in Red china, scholars usually apply the replacement level of two.one (Guo 2004).

^bUnreasonable values refer to date of divorce or being widowed occurring earlier than the outset of the first union. The numbers of the two kinds of unreasonable values are 6 and three, respectively; thus, deleting them does not significantly affect the entire sample.

^cAt the start of the get-go marriage, the historical period is the same as the date of marriage. As time goes on, historical periods change. For example, a couple that married in 1966 and were nevertheless married in 2010 when the survey was conducted would have experienced five different historical periods. In the analysis, the time-varying variable representing the menses can capture this change.

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Affiliations

1. School of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Nanjing University, 163 Xianlin Avenue, Qixia Commune, 210023, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China

   Qi Xu

2. Shanghai Development Research Institute, Shanghai Party Found of CCP, No. 200 South HongCao Route, 200233, Shanghai, China

   Jianning Yu

3. Department of Sociology, Peking University, five Yiheyuan Road, 100871, Beijing, Cathay

   Zeqi Qiu

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Qi Xu.

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The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Authors' contributions

QX carried out the written report and drafted the manuscript. JY and ZQ both did much auxiliary piece of work and provided many constructive suggestions to the written report. All authors read and canonical the concluding manuscript.

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Xu, Q., Yu, J. & Qiu, Z. The bear on of children on divorce risk. J. Chin. Sociol. ii, one (2015). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40711-015-0003-0

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• Received: 16 December 2014

• Accepted: 03 March 2015

• Published: 17 Apr 2015

• DOI : https://doi.org/x.1186/s40711-015-0003-0

Keywords

• Divorce risk
• Premarital nativity
• Number of children
• Children's age
• Children's gender
• Rural-urban differences

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